CHICAGO -- Don't expect the fuel industry to change much in the next 10 to 15 years, panelists said during this morning's NACS Show "Future of Fuels" workshop.

Joel Velasco of Amyris Biotechnologies Inc., Jim Gentry of Gas America Services Inc. and Scott Zaremba of Zarco 66 Inc. agreed that hydrocarbons will continue to rule through about 2025, although they predicted that petroleum will become more efficient.

Several fuel alternatives and hybrids -- biodiesel, propane, compressed natural gas (CNG) and electric -- were discussed during the standing-room-only session moderated by John Eichberger of NACS, but the panel said the costs to build the infrastructures for such alternatives are simply too high.

"We're located in the Midwest, so we're pretty conservative," Gentry said. "We're in the hydrocarbon and ethanol business now. For at least my lifetime — as open-minded as you want to be about these [alternatives] -- we're not going to go there. We're going to stick with what has worked well … Oil has been the lifeblood of this country for the past 100 years. I think it will continue to be that way."

In 10 to 15 years, Velasco said, there will clearly be petroleum in the fossil-based diesel, but there will be diesels of different varieties as well. "There will be a mix, but the infrastructure will not be in place for alternative fuels."

These other fuels will come into play in some way and will find their niche, Zaremba added. "A lot of it depends on where the government wants to push, but I think we will see something very similar to what we have today."

Panelist Coleman Jones of General Motors held a different view of the future. He said the industry should see some biodiesel blends, along with E10. "There might be a drop in the hydrocarbon portion of E10 fuel," he said. "I also think you'll see a lot of E85 dispensers and in places like university towns, I believe you'll see some electric-powered vehicles."

Jones said CNG could also have a bright future, and General Motors currently offers a CNG utility vehicle for purchase. The vehicle is primarily manufactured for purchase by fleets, not individual consumers at this time.

Unlike ethanol, natural gas is considerably cheaper than hydrocarbon. Natural gas would cost in the range of $1.30 to $1.50 per gallon when filling up a vehicle. Government mandates may also help push CNG forward.

"There is legislation that has been produced in the House of Representatives called the ‘Natural Gas Act,'" said Eichberger. "It's sponsored by John Sullivan, a Congressman from Oklahoma. There are 435 members of the House of Representatives. Two hundred thirty of them have co-sponsored this bill. So there's a lot of incentive to convert vehicles into natural gas."

The main hindrance to the bill is the $6 billion price tag. So despite the support, Eichberger said he feels the prospects of the bill passing are "dim."

It's a heavy infrastructure investment, noted Gentry. "Again, in the heart of Indiana [where we are based], you'd have trouble even finding a municipality that would be willing to convert to CNG. Is there a return on investment? We have looked at it, but we're a long way from going there."

"Is it the answer?" asked Zaremba. "No. But there could be an opportunity there. CNG is certainly something we're keeping our eye on. Again, the infrastructure is the problem. I got a price quote of $90,000 to buy three used storage tanks that hold about 700 gallons of CNG each. It's cost prohibitive."

Electric vehicles and charging stations were touted as a possibly robust fuel alternative as soon as 2012 in the just-released Oct. 3 issue of Convenience Store News. However, Velasco, Gentry and Zaremba weren't sold on these charging stations having a great future.  

"We looked at electric," said Zaremba. "I'm located in Lawrence, Kan., a university town. It's a semi-green place. But the 480-volt charging stations I looked into cost $90,000. The technology is there to put in the charging station. But I've only seen one electric vehicle in the city so far. So it doesn't make sense for us. We can't justify it."

Liquid fuels provide a huge advantage because of mobility and portability, according to Velasco. "Unlike with electric, you can go long distances when you use a liquid fuel.

Even Jones, whose company makes the Chevy Volt, an electric/hydrocarbon hybrid, acknowledged that right now, people aren't clamoring for electric vehicles. "The question is, how many of them are really out there? We could be [dipping into a] very small well. Seeing your neighbor get towed home because they ran out of an electric charge and had no way to recharge can have an affect on others [when considering purchasing an electric vehicle]. Also, the battery is the most important thing in an electric vehicle. Protecting that battery is incredibly important."